What now?
by Konrad Kiedrzynski
Warsaw Business Journal
10/22/07

While the polls have closed and the votes have been tallied,
Poland's political parties will now channel their energies into
wrangling over a government.

A coalition will be necessary, and yesterday's enemies may become
today's allies. After two years of mud-slinging, however, it could
be some time before the parties start playing ball

Sunday's elections may be over, but a broad range of possible post-
election scenarios remain. "If anybody thought that the election
night would bring a solution to all the problems, they were wrong,"
said Joachim Osiñski, vice rector of the Warsaw School of Economics
(SGH) and an expert on public administration.

The key players in the election will have a hard slog ahead of them
as they try to hammer out a compromise. Due to the ins and outs of
the Polish electoral system, without a landslide victory, even the
runner up could have the chance to form a government.

Civic Platform's options

The liberal Civic Platform (PO) has at least two potential partners,
the Left and Democrats (LiD) and the Polish Peasants' Party (PSL).
During PO's election campaign it primarily antagonized the Law and
Justice (PiS) party, which leaves less bad blood between it and the
other two groups.

The first alternative would be an alliance with LiD, a leftist
coalition consisting of four parties: the Democratic Left Alliance
(SLD); Social Democracy of Poland (SDPL); the Labour Union (UP); and
the Democratic Party (PD). Within this grouping former communists
and anti-communist activists have come together under the banner of
reconciliation in order to increase their chances of entering
parliament.

Controversial alliance

Such an alliance would be highly controversial, however. While
cooperating with legends from the anti-communist opposition would
not be a problem for most PO members and supporters, the thought of
allying with former communists raises hackles, especially among the
party's more conservative wing. Jaros³aw Gowin, a key representative
among PO's conservatives, went as far as saying that no Catholic
should vote for the post-communist party.

Alongside moral dilemmas, however, such a coalition could present
practical problems. Sergiusz Trzeciak, a political analyst and the
head of Sobieski Institute, pointed out that the members of LiD are
old hands at politics and would be very demanding partners. After
several years away from the political scene, many of them are hungry
for power. "This is a risky coalition for PO," said Trzeciak.

Risky as such coalition would be, the groups have gotten on well in
government at both the regional and EU levels, noted Tomasz Teluk,
founder and president of the Foundation Globalization Institute
(IG), a free-market-oriented think-tank. Moreover, PO and LiD enjoy
close contact with Polish business representatives, Teluk said.

But SGH's Joachim Osiñski disagreed. "Of course both parties have
close ties with businesses. Still, in LiD's case - and especially in
the case of SLD - these ties are pathological in nature," he said.
In Osiñski's view, PO aims for business transparency, and even the
corruption scandal which erupted last week around former PO deputy
Beata Sawicka does not undermine that fact.

Rural rebranding

The second possible coalition partner for PO would be PSL. This
party, which used to battle with Self-defense for the rural and
agricultural electorate, is now trying to rebrand itself as business
friendly and hi-tech oriented. "PSL is growing into a modern and
innovative party which appeals to young and educated people. The
image they are adopting complements PO's [image] very well," said
Osiñski, stressing that the two parties have successfully cooperated
at the local-government level.

A PO-PSL alliance would be all the more probable since PSL's
campaign - unlike those of the other parties - was generally
positive and no outstanding animosities exist between its leaders
and other party leaders. "Creating a PO-PSL coalition would be
relatively quick and easy," concluded Osiñski.

But allying with PSL could have its cost as well, especially after
PO's leader, Donald Tusk, has made his interest in cooperation
public on several occasions. "Being aware of its value for PO, PSL
will increase its asking price," said the Sobieski Institute's
Trzeciak.

PiS's options

If PiS has to form the government, its task will be harder since it
has left itself limited space for political maneuvers. First of all,
most analysts rule out the possibility of any alliance with LiD,
despite similarities in the groups' economic platforms. These two
parties have diametrically opposed visions on such basic issues as
the role of Poland in the EU, its role in international politics and
how to interpret its communist past.

When it comes to coalition formation, the most plausible partner for
PiS would be the so-called XPR, an alliance comprising the League of
Polish Families (LPR), the Real Politics Union (UPR) and the Right
of the Republic (RP), noted IG's Teluk. "Despite economic
differences these groups have always been close to each other with
their anti-establishment orientation," he told WBJ.

However, poor election results from the grouping may scupper any
cooperation between it and PiS.

A second possible coalition partner would be PSL. Both parties hold
a traditional view of religion and society, and they espouse similar
values. Yet, according to Osiñski, in striving to polish its image
as a modern party, PSL would be more eager to ally with PO.
Besides, "the cost of the alliance would be much higher for PiS than
for PO," said Sobieski Institute's Trzeciak.

Friends again?

Ultimately, a PO-PiS coalition cannot be completely ruled out.
Despite two years of mud-slinging, hopes for such an alliance -
which many had predicted after the 2005 elections - have not been
completely smashed. "Polish politics is quite unpredictable and has
often seen examples of alliances between the fiercest enemies,"
stated IG's Teluk.

Fierce though their enmity may be, both parties have roots in the
anti-communist opposition, and both are conservative and free-market
oriented. These ideological compatibilities are particularly visible
in the fact that so many prominent members have moved from one party
to the other, including Nelly Rokita, Maciej P³a¿yñski, Zyta
Gilowska, Rados³aw Sikorski, or Bogdan Borusewicz.

After two years of bitter struggle, any compromise between PO and
PiS would indeed require enormous effort on both sides. In
Trzeciak's opinion, the leaders of the parties would have to back
off and let a less prominent politician step up to serve as both
Prime Minister and as a bridge between the two groups. The
distribution of the key ministerial posts would have to be generous
and agreement on the government's agenda would require a great deal
of good will. Still, the two parties would stand a chance to combine
what is good in each of them, said IG's Teluk. "PO is more savvy in
economics and PiS is a tougher player in international politics ...
these two aspects could go well together," he argued.

Filling in the trenches

Although the range of possible scenarios is broad, the solution may
not come soon. After such a vitriolic election season, there may be
little will to cooperate and the transition from rivalry to
collaboration could take a long while, argued SGH's Osiñski. "It
will take a lot of time to fill in the trenches," he said.

Whenever - and however - the new government is formed, it may end up
fragile and incapable of taking decisive steps or enacting reforms.
In Teluk's opinion, none of the possible coalition permutations
could produce a decisive government. "Not before the 2011 elections
will a strong government, able to carry out radical reforms,
appear," he said.

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